Between the war in Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle East, and ongoing conflicts in Africa, geopolitical tensions are disrupting trade and traveler routes and shaking up supply chains globally.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) plays a critical role in addressing risks and issuing guidance for operations over or near conflict zones so States can better perform risk assessments. According to ICAO’s president, Salvatore Sciacchitano, the invasion of Ukraine presents “one of the greatest challenges ever to confront modern international order, serving as a lesson that the incredible benefits and progress realized through international frameworks and agreements can be quite fragile and our multilateral systems and objectives must be continuously renewed and reinforced.”
The knock-on impact is being acutely felt by both airlines and companies producing essential specialty materials. “We can’t fly over Russia, making flights two to three hours longer and more costly,” Marjan Rintel, CEO of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines explains. Kimberly Fields, president of ATI Inc., points to critical disruptions namely in titanium due to restrictions on Russian materials: “We saw a rapid shift in titanium sourcing for aerospace, which created significant demand and highlighted the importance of diversifying our customer base.”
Routes are also being diversified in response; Vancouver International Airport has added 13 new markets — including Vietnam and Indonesia — to compensate for lost routes: “Before the pandemic, YVR had more flights to and from China than any other North American airport. However, diplomatic tensions and geopolitical changes have reduced these significantly. Commercial aviation is governed by nation-to-nation treaties, and changes like this have resulted in stricter adherence to governing protocols, limiting the number of reciprocal flights,” Tamara Vrooman, CEO, explains. As for security threats, Henry Hernandez, president & CEO of Inter-Con Security highlights: “Externally, large military conflicts and aggressive actions by countries like Russia, China, and Iran pose cyber risks. Our main fear is state-funded cyberattacks targeting airport operations, such as air traffic control systems.” With U.S. election season also upon us, he adds that domestically there is “significant fear of potential incidents of domestic disturbances, especially at major airports.”