Transportation accounts for nearly a quarter of global CO2 emissions, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Just as we are experiencing a constant increase in energy demand across industries, the World Energy Council highlights that the global car fleet is expected to triple by 2050. This entails a double challenge; how do we keep up producing and delivering more energy for mobility while decreasing emissions?
Global EV sales are expected to reach 45 percent of the market by 2030 according to Bloomberg NEF. For example, by 2027, JLR will have invested “$16 billion in our transformation to deliver fully electric models across all our brands by 2030," states Andrea Debbane, director of sustainability at JLR. The market appears ready—Range Rover's upcoming electric model has already attracted "over 41,000 sign-ups to the waiting list." These numbers show that EVs are already a constitutive element of the automotive industry.
Yet the environmental equation is more complex than it might appear. "Electrification has inherent issues, such as the significant carbon emissions associated with manufacturing EV batteries," notes José Barreiro, executive director for mobility at Repsol. According to the IEA, manufacturing an electric car produces up to 80 percent more emissions than those entailed by the construction of a conventional car, precisely due to the energy-intensive battery production Barreiro was referring to. Furthermore, the World Bank estimated that meeting 2050's EV demand will require 500 percent more cobalt and lithium production than what we are producing today, which has naturally raised concerns about resource sustainability. Another point that has to be addressed is the source of electricity, as in regions heavily dependent on coal, like parts of China and India, EVs can generate more total lifecycle emissions than gasoline cars.
These challenges are compounded by significant infrastructure gaps. "The European Commission's reports suggest that the current infrastructure is growing annually at only about 30 percent of what is needed," notes Michael Cole, president and CEO of Hyundai Motor Europe. This gap between ambition and reality has led major players to pursue diverse approaches. Volkswagen Group exemplifies doubling up on electrification: "By 2035, we plan to sell our last combustion engine in Europe," explains Dirk Voeste, CSO. "We have announced over 60 new electric models globally by 2030...and are working towards 40,000 fast charging stations worldwide by 2025." Furthermore, Solid Power, a pioneer in all-solid-state batteries, is developing technology that promises to improve EV batteries, increasing their range and therefore reducing the need for infrastructure. "Solid-state batteries have the potential to significantly improve energy density, meaning longer driving ranges for EVs or the same range with a lighter battery," explains John van Scoter, CEO of Solid Power. On the other hand, Repsol is also including alternative approaches. "Relying solely on electrification poses several challenges," argues Barreiro. This reality has driven Repsol to pursue a multi-technology approach, with "over 400 service stations offering renewable fuels" and plans to reach 2,000 by 2027. Supporting this diversified approach, Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor points out that "even under the most aggressive forecasts, around 40 percent of new vehicle sales will still involve internal combustion engines by 2050." The company's focus on bioethanol, which is already about 50 percent less carbon-intensive than gasoline, represents another pathway to reducing emissions in the existing vehicle fleet.
The role of hydrogen for heavy transport is emerging as an important complement to electrification. "Hydrogen vehicles benefit from short refueling times and long ranges, making them ideal for commercial use where downtime needs to be minimized," explains Cole, pointing to Hyundai's Xcient heavy-duty truck already operating across Europe. This mirrors Toyota's approach, where Chief Sustainability Officer Yumi Otsuka emphasizes their commitment to developing multiple solutions through their ‘mobility concept,’ which “encapsulates leveraging AI, autonomous driving and hydrogen technologies.” Maybe the perfect example of this holistic ambition is its ”Woven City” project near Mount Fuji—a living laboratory testing that ”will trial high-resolution logistics, robotics and other advanced technologies...showcasing how technology and sustainability can coexist and evolve together.”
Innovation in efficiency remains critical across all technologies. In the high-stakes laboratory of Formula E racing, breakthroughs are already translating to consumer vehicles. "We've introduced cutting-edge silicon carbide technology in our Formula E inverters, and now this is being incorporated into future Jaguar and Land Rover vehicles," reveals James Barclay, managing director of JLR Motorsport. "Our cars are incredibly efficient, using less than 5 liters of fuel equivalent to complete a 45-minute race, often at speeds of up to 180 miles per hour." Dan Garlick, motorsport director at Goodwood, also tells us about their advancements in this field: "Additionally, we've transitioned all our event generators to run on HVO biodiesel, reducing emissions by about 80-90 percent, which has been a game-changer in cutting overall event emissions by a third."
The simple reality is one of unprecedented scale: The global vehicle fleet is projected to double to 2 billion by 2050 according to the IEA, with most growth occurring in emerging economies where electrification is a distant reality. No single solution can address this massive transition.